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Methods and Applications in Fluorescence

MAF 2022: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance pp 70–75Cite as

Estimation of the Gift Probability in Fund Raising Management

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Abstract

In fund raising management, modeling the gift probability is a key point. The availability of an accurate estimate of the gift probability is relevant in order to evaluate the results of a fund raising campaign. In this contribution, we discuss a statistical methodology for modeling and estimating such quantity. To this aim, a parametric approach is suggested. In particular, we model the number of gifts as a Poisson random variable with intensity parameter which depends on individual characteristics of the Donors. The expected number of donations, and the probability of gift, can then be estimated by performing a Poisson regression.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Formally, denoting with D the gift/donation event, we have \(Y = \mathbf {1}_D(\omega )\), where \(\mathbf {1}_D\) is the indicator function of D, with \(\mathbb {P}[Y=1]=p\).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, University of Bologna, Piazza di Porta San Donato 5, 40126, Bologna, Italy

    Luca Barzanti

  2. Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Sestiere Cannaregio 873, 30121, Venice, Italy

    Martina Nardon

Authors
  1. Luca Barzanti
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  2. Martina Nardon
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martina Nardon .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy

    Marco Corazza

  2. Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Salerno, Italy

    Cira Perna

  3. Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy

    Claudio Pizzi

  4. Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Italy

    Marilena Sibillo

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Barzanti, L., Nardon, M. (2022). Estimation of the Gift Probability in Fund Raising Management. In: Corazza, M., Perna, C., Pizzi, C., Sibillo, M. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2022. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99638-3_12

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