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Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs

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Abstract

The study assesses the performance of 24 model runs from five COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating East Africa’s spatio-temporal precipitation characteristics using a set of eight descriptors: consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), mean daily annual (pr_ANN), seasonal (pr_MAM and pr_OND) precipitation, and representatives of heavy precipitation (90p) and very intense precipitation (99p) events. Relatively better performing RCM runs are then used to assess projected precipitation changes (for the period 2071–2099 relative to 1977–2005) over the study domain under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The performance of RCMs is found to be descriptor and scope specific. Overall, RCA4 (r1i1p1) forced by CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, REMO2009 (r1i1p1) forced by MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, and RCA4 (r2i1p1) forced by MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR emerge as the top four RCM runs. We show that an ensemble mean of the top four model runs outperforms an ensemble mean of 24 model simulations and ensemble means for all runs in an RCM. Our analysis of projections shows a reduction (increase) in mean daily precipitation for MAM(OND), an increase(decrease) in CDD(CWD) events, and a general increase in SDII and the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution (99p–90p). An increase in SDII and 99p–90p implies a possibility of occurrence of heavy and extreme precipitation incidences by the end of the twenty-first century. Our findings provide important information to support the region’s climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.

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(adapted from Kim et al. 2014)

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Notes

  1. In addition to the default threshold for a rainy day (1 mm/day), we used a higher threshold of 2.5 mm/day to facilitate comparison.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank colleagues from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), The African Academy of Sciences (AAS), and Kenyatta University, Nairobi for their insights that helped shape this paper. Contribution of various modelling groups participating in CORDEX as outlined in Table 1 (as well CHIRPS and TAMSAT data) are acknowledged for making the data publicly available. Further, the lead author acknowledges the contribution of Dr. Benjamin Gyampoh towards the realization of this paper. Statements made and errors, if any, are solely the responsibility of the authors and not the institutions they represent.

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental Studies, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya

    Obed M. Ogega, James Koske & James B. Kung’u

  2. The African Academy of Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya

    Obed M. Ogega

  3. Fondazione CMCC Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy

    Enrico Scoccimarro

  4. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya

    Hussen S. Endris

  5. Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy

    Malcolm N. Mistry

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  1. Obed M. Ogega
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Ogega, O.M., Koske, J., Kung’u, J.B. et al. Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs. Clim Dyn 55, 993–1009 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05309-z

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