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Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR

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Abstract

A vivid scientific debate exists on the nature of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) as an intrinsic rather than predominantly forced climatic phenomenon, and on the role of ocean circulation. Here, we use a multi-millennial unperturbed control simulation and a Holocene simulation with slow-varying greenhouse gas and orbital forcing performed with the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to illustrate thermohaline conditions associated with twelve events of strong AMV that are comparable, in the surface anomalies, to observations in their amplitudes (~ 0.3 °C) and periods (~ 80 years). The events are associated with recurrent yet spatially diverse same-sign anomalous sea-surface temperature and salinity fields that are substantially symmetric in the warm-to-cold and following cold-to-warm transitions and only partly superpose with the long-term spatial AMV pattern. Subpolar cold-fresh anomalies develop in the deep layers during the peak cold phase of strong AMV events, often in association with subtropical warm-salty anomalies yielding a meridional dipole pattern. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) robustly weakens during the warm-to-cold transition of a strong AMV event and recovers thereafter, with surface salinity anomalies being potential precursors of such overturning changes. A Holocene simulation with the same model including volcanic forcing can disrupt the intrinsic AMV–AMOC connection as post-eruption periods often feature an AMOC strengthening forced by the volcanically induced surface cooling. Overall, our results support the AMV as a potential intrinsic feature of climate, whose episodic strong anomalous events can display different shades of spatial patterns and timings for the warm-to-cold and subsequent cold-to-warm transitions. Attribution of historical AMV fluctuations thus requires full consideration of the associated surface and subsurface thermohaline conditions and assessing the AMOC–AMV relation.

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Data availability

Primary data and scripts used in the analysis and other supplementary information that may be useful in reproducing this work will be archived by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology upon final publication.

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Acknowledgements

Simulations were performed at the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ). Maps are plotted with the m_map package (Pawlowicz 2000) for MATLAB software, using the GSHHG dataset for coastlines (Wessel and Smith 1996). Map colors based on http://www.ColorBrewer.org, by Cynthia A. Brewer, Penn State. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

Funding

This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the research programme “ROMIC-II, ISOVIC” (FKZ: 01LG1909B, SWF) and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Research Unit VolImpact (FOR2820, Grant no. 398006378, CT) within the project VolClim. N-EO is supported by the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit funded by the Trond Mohn Foundation (Grant BFS2018TMT01), the RCN funded ROADMAP project (Grant 316618) under a joint JPI Climate and JPI Ocean call and the Impetus4Change funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program (Grant 101081555).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172, Mestre, Italy

    Davide Zanchettin & Angelo Rubino

  2. Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck & Johann H. Jungclaus

  3. Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Universités /IRD/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France

    Myriam Khodri

  4. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 7803, 5020, Bergen, Norway

    Nour-Eddine Omrani

  5. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestraße 24, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Sara Rubinetti

  6. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Hafenstraße 43, 25992, List, Sylt, Germany

    Sara Rubinetti

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  1. Davide Zanchettin
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  8. Johann H. Jungclaus
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Contributions

DZ conceived the study, performed the analyses, wrote the initial manuscript and revised it. SWF computed the indices. All authors contributed to discussion and finalization of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Davide Zanchettin.

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Zanchettin, D., Fang, SW., Khodri, M. et al. Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR. Clim Dyn 61, 2371–2393 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06679-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06679-w

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