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The relation between karst spring discharge and rainfall by cross-correlation analysis (Campania, southern Italy)

Relation entre le débit d’une source karstique et les précipitations par corrélations croisées (Campanie, Italie du Sud)

La relación entre la descarga de un manantial kárstico y la precipitación por análisis de correlación cruzada (Campania, Italia del sur)

喀斯特泉流量与降水之间关系的交叉相关分析: 意大利南部坎帕尼亚区的案例

Aplicação da análise de correlação cruzada para avaliar a relação entre caudais de descarga de nascente em aquíferos cársicos e precipitação (Campania, Sul da Itália)

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Abstract

The relation between rainfall and the discharge from two springs, located at the base of different karst massifs in southern Italy, is investigated by cross-correlation analyses. Data are derived from a continuous time window of 13 years. The input signal involves multiple rainfall time series (cumulative rainfall over varying time windows), while the time series of daily spring discharges are used as the output signal. Analyses were first conducted on the unprocessed data and then on data for which linear trends and seasonal components had been removed, the latter by a spectral analysis. Analyses contributed to the investigation of the time required for water to flow through the karst aquifers at the two sites. Long time intervals of the cumulative rainfall (>60 days) appear to be the main component affecting the spring discharge hydrographs; shorter time intervals seem to be related to quick-flow paths. Some statistics about the linear regression and the meaning of the cross-correlation analysis are discussed. Cross-correlation analysis can provide strong support for identification of the main rainfall contribution and the travel time through the main infiltration pathways in aquifers.

Résumé

La relation entre précipitations et débit de deux sources localisées à la base de différents massifs karstiques de l’Italie du Sud, est étudiée par corrélations croisées. Les données sont tirées d’une chronique continue sur 13 années. Le signal d’entrée comporte de multiples séries chronologiques de précipitations (précipitations cumulées sur diverses périodes), tandis que les séries chronologiques des débits journaliers sont utilisées comme signal de sortie. Des analyses ont tout d’abord fourni des données brutes puis des données dont les tendances linéaires et les composantes saisonnières ont été soustraites par analyse spectrale. Des analyses ont conduit à la recherche de la durée nécessaire à l’eau pour s’écouler à travers les aquifères des deux sites. Des précipitations de longue durée cumulée (>60 jours) apparaissent comme étant la principale composante affectant les hydrogrammes; des intervalles plus courts semblent en liaison avec des trajectoires à écoulement rapide. Des statistiques relatives à la régression linéaire et la signification de l’analyse par corrélation croisée sont discutées. L’analyse par corrélation croisée peut fournir une base solide pour l’identification de la principale composante de la précipitation et le temps d’écoulement à travers les principaux chenaux des aquifères.

Resumen

Se investigó la relación entre la precipitación y la descarga de dos manantiales, localizados en la base de diferentes macizos de karsts en el sur de Italia, mediante un análisis de correlación cruzada. Los datos se extrajeron de una ventana temporal continua de 13 años. La señal de ingreso involucró múltiples series temporales de precipitaciones (precipitación acumulada sobre ventanas de tiempos variables), mientras que las series de tiempo de descargas de manantiales diaria se usaron como la señal de salida. Los análisis fueron conducidos primeramente sobre datos no procesados y luego en los datos para los cuales las tendencias lineares y las componentes estacionales han sido eliminadas, las últimas mediante un análisis espectral. Los análisis contribuyeron a la investigación sobre los tiempos requeridos para el flujo de agua a través de acuíferos kársticos en dos sitios. Los intervalos a largo plazo de la precipitación acumulada (>60 días) parecen ser la componente principal que afecta el hidrograma de descarga del manantial; los intervalos de tiempo más cortos parecen estar relacionados a trayectorias de flujos rápidos. Se discuten algunas estadísticas acerca de la regresión linear y del significado del análisis de la correlación cruzada. El análisis de correlación cruzada puede proveer un fuerte apoyo para la identificación de la contribución principal de la precipitación y del tiempo de tránsito a través de las trayectorias principales de infiltración en los acuíferos.

摘要

应用交叉相关分析, 对意大利南部不同喀斯特地块的两个泉的流量与降水的关系进行了研究。数据取自某13年时段连续值。输入信号包括多个降水时间序列 (不同时段累积降水), 而以日泉流量时间序列作为输出信号。首先对未处理的数据, 然后对剔除线性趋势和季节因素之后的数据进行了分析, 后者为谱分析。该分析有助于研究这两个地区喀斯特含水层中水的循环时间。长期 (>60天) 累积降水量为影响泉流量水文过程线的主要因素; 而短期累积降水量则与快速径流路径相关。对线性回归的某些统计值和交叉相关分析的意义进行了讨论。交叉相关分析可以很好地识别主要的降水贡献和含水层主要径流路径中水的循环时间。

Resumo

A relação entre a precipitação e a descarga de duas nascentes, localizadas em diferentes maciços cársicos no sul da Itália, é avaliada por análise de correlação cruzada. Os dados são provenientes de uma série cronológica contínua de 13 anos. Como input são utilizadas várias séries temporais de precipitação (chuva acumulada para diferentes intervalos de tempo), enquanto o output é constituído por séries diárias de descargas nas nascentes. Primeiro, a análise é efectuada sobre os dados não processados e, em seguida, sobre novos dados, sobre os quais se utilizou análise espectral para remover a tendência linear e a sazonalidade. Esta análise permitiu avaliar o tempo de circulação da água nos aquíferos cársicos entre os locais de entrada e de saída. Os resultados mostram que a principal componente que afecta os hidrogramas de caudais de nascente, são os episódios de precipitação acumulada de longa duração (>60 dias), enquanto os intervalos de tempo mais curtos parecem estar mais relacionados com os caminhos de fluxo mais rápido. São discutidos alguns dados estatísticos sobre a regressão linear e o significado da análise de correlação cruzada. Como conclusão, pode dizer-se que a análise de correlação cruzada é um bom instrumento para estudar a contribuição da precipitação e do tempo de circulação da água nos aquíferos cársicos.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Prof. Francesco Maria Guadagno and Prof. Vincenzo Simeone for fruitful discussions about the investigated issues and about the results. Acquedotto Pugliese and Campania Regional Government, respectively, provided data for Caposele and Torano springs. The authors are also grateful to the Associate Editor, to Dr. Athanasios Maramathas and to the two anonymous reviewers for the work they invested in reviewing this manuscript.

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Correspondence to Francesco Fiorillo.

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Fiorillo, F., Doglioni, A. The relation between karst spring discharge and rainfall by cross-correlation analysis (Campania, southern Italy). Hydrogeol J 18, 1881–1895 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-010-0666-1

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