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Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

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Abstract

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.

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Acknowledgments

The activities described in this paper were developed in the frame of the CANTICO project, funded under the CIRCLE-MED programme. Additional funding came from the Italian Ministry of Education, University, and Research, and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project. Part of the experimental data included in the database was provided by SAROST S.A. (Tunisia). The authors would like to thank Francesco Rianna and Paolo Riccato for data elaboration and representation in GIS and Alex Zabeo and Filippo Corò for the software development. Finally, the authors are grateful to Virginia Burkett for the linguistic revision of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Via Augusto Imperatore, 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy

    Jonathan Rizzi, Silvia Torresan, Andrea Critto & Antonio Marcomini

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Cà Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172, Venezia Mestre, Italy

    Jonathan Rizzi, Valentina Gallina, Andrea Critto & Antonio Marcomini

  3. SAROST S.A, Marine Engineering and Geosciences Division, Immeuble Saadi, Tour EF, El Menzah IV, 1082, Tunis, Tunisia

    Slim Gana

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  1. Jonathan Rizzi
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  2. Valentina Gallina
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  3. Silvia Torresan
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  4. Andrea Critto
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  5. Slim Gana
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Correspondence to Antonio Marcomini.

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Handled by Nick Harvey, The University of Adelaide, Australia.

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Rizzi, J., Gallina, V., Torresan, S. et al. Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia). Sustain Sci 11, 455–476 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0344-2

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