ReviewIntroducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation
Introduction
Many research studies that have reconstructed past climate conditions of our planet demonstrate how climate has been continuously changing. However, never in the past changes have been as rapid as those we are experiencing in modern times, and there is now strong evidence that this is due to human influence (Solomon et al., 2007). Dated ice cores show that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) had been fluctuating between 180 and 300 ppm over the last 650 000 years, but then a sharp increase from 280 ppm of the pre-industrial period to 379 ppm in 2005 has been observed. The annual growth rate over the last 10 years has been the highest ever observed since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (Solomon et al., 2007). Greenhouse gases are thought to be responsible for the current and unequivocal warming trend: global average surface temperature increased from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 by 0.76 °C ± 0.19 °C. The rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years (0.13 °C ± 0.03 °C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years (Solomon et al., 2007). Numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed at both the global and local scales; these include changes in surface temperatures and ice cover in the Arctic, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and intensity of tropical cyclones (Trenberth et al., 2007). Climate changes may influence also human health as the increase in temperature may lead to population thermal stress, and the predicted extreme events may cause famines (Confalonieri et al., 2007).
Climate change will have a wide range of consequences both on the natural environment and on human activities (Bloomfield et al., 2006, Macdonald et al., 2003a, Macdonald et al., 2005, Wilby et al., 2006, Zepp et al., 2003). Being climate change possibly the greatest challenge that humankind currently faces, most countries joined international agreements on future perspectives and policy, e.g. the Kyoto protocol (1998, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php), and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992, http://unfccc.int/2860.php).
Like climate change, environmental contamination caused by Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) is a global concerning issue. POPs are defined in the UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). POPs accumulate in living organisms and subsequently in humans via food. Because of an increasing concern about these contaminants, international treaties were signed at international level: the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Stockholm Convention signed by 127 countries in 2001 is an important example of the worldwide attention focused on POPs, and also the UNECE Protocol for the selection of new POP substances in 1998 demonstrates the international consideration of POPs contamination issues (OECD, 2004).
As the environmental behaviour of POPs depends on the complex interaction of many factors, any significant environmental alteration is likely to affect their distribution and fate. Temperature plays an important role in affecting POPs mobility but also several other parameters are key factors in influencing POPs behaviour and should therefore be taken into account. Some examples are given by wind and oceanic current patterns, precipitations' distribution, land cover characteristics and so on. The alteration of any of these factors will in turn influence the parameters controlling the environmental distribution and fate of POPs, such as reaction rate constants (i.e. partitioning and degradation rates), the release rates from secondary sources (e.g. contaminated soil), uptake rates, bioaccumulation dynamics.
To date, only few studies focused on the existing interactions between climate change and POPs behaviour and distribution (Eisenreich, 2005, Dalla Valle et al., 2007, Jenssen, 2006; Macdonald et al., 2005). Some information is available for specific case studies, in particular about the Arctic environment, undoubtedly the most vulnerable and affected area with respect both to POPs contamination and climatic changes (e.g. Macdonald et al., 2003a, Macdonald et al., 2003b, Macdonald et al., 2005). However, many uncertainties and challenges have to be still addressed and there is also paucity of experimental data and scientific background information, from which to evaluate the real significance of climate change influence on POPs behaviour and fate. Suitable data for a better understanding on the influence of climate change on the cycling of POPs in the environment are certainly not enough or covering time span that is not long enough to study long-term phenomena. Such a gap could be covered by collecting more soil and sediment core samples, thus allowing the study of contamination trends depending both on climate conditions as well as on emissions' history.
The main objective of this paper is to identify the implications of climate change for POPs monitoring and modelling, and for regulation and policy perspectives, as it is summarised in Table 1. The most relevant research gaps are also discussed.
Section snippets
Direct and indirect impacts of climate change
As a definitive distinction between direct and indirect climate change impacts on the environment is still missing, in the present study we distinguish between “direct” and “indirect” climate change impacts on POPs environmental behaviour. “Direct” climate change impacts are primarily driven by temperature rise (i.e. change in ice coverage, marine and atmospheric temperature, sea level rise, precipitation amounts and the related extreme events, water vapour, marine salinity, wind and current
Implications for monitoring
Providing experimental evidence of changes in POPs distribution and fate due to global warming is extremely challenging, as long-term monitoring data are needed for different environmental compartments. The difficulty to discern how much of the observed changes can be ascribed to climate variations and not to changes in production and use of the chemicals themselves is also to be taken into account when dealing with such a complex problem.
It is well known that temperature and other climate
Implications for modelling
As discussed in the previous paragraphs, shifts in environmental conditions due to climate change, together with changes in human activities, can significantly affect the behaviour and fate of chemicals in the environment. It should be taken in mind, as an example, how our planet has been modified by humans over the last century, to realise how much the current landscape is likely to be radically transformed in the future. Therefore, in order to predict the fate of chemicals in response to
Implications for regulation and policy
National and international treaties and laws on chemicals management and pollution control do not take adequately into account climate change or more in general the possibility that the environment will undergo some significant changes over time. If global warming will occur, higher temperatures will enhance the mobility and the LRAT potential for chemicals, thus potentially increasing the environmental concentrations of some pollutants in already vulnerable areas. In addition, those areas may
Conclusions
In this paper a series of possible effects of climate change on the distribution and fate of POPs have been illustrated, in particular to discuss the implications of climate change on monitoring, modelling and regulation issues of this class of chemicals. Providing experimental evidence of changes in POPs fate due to global warming is extremely challenging, as long-term monitoring data are needed for each environmental compartment. Furthermore, the difficulty to discern how much of the observed
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC; Lecce, Italy) for financial support. The authors thank the reviewers for helpful comments and criticism.
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