The role of aquatic reservoir fluctuations in long-term cholera patterns
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open access
Highlights
► We model the impact of fluctuations of water availability on cholera epidemiology. ► The seasonality of water input drives the variation of concentration of bacteria. ► The model can reproduce characteristics of disease insurgence and persistence. ► We explore the influence of parameters on model behavior through bifurcation analysis. ► The emerging chaotic patterns resemble actual data on long-term cholera insurgence.
Keywords
Waterborne diseases
Seasonally forced model
Chaotic time-series
Hydrologic seasonality and cholera
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Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V.