Variability and strictness in COVID-19 government response: A macro-regional assessment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2022.100039Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • We study the effectiveness of government policies against COVID-19 deaths and infections.

  • We focus on the strictness and variability of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

  • More stringent and frequent NPIs are associated with slower contagion.

  • The strictness and variability of NPIs lead to higher COVID-19 mortality.

  • The effectiveness of NPIs varies across geographical regions and over time.

Abstract

We examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical government interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19. In particular, we focus on the impact of strictness and variability in government interventions on the reproduction rate (Rt) and the number of new deaths (per million of inhabitants) in five different world regions (G7, G20, EU28, Central America and Asia). In line with existing evidence, we observe that more stringent and frequent NPIs contributed to slow down contagion. Unfortunately, no benefits in terms of mortality are found. In fact, with few exceptions, both strictness and variability in NPIs are associated with a rise in the number of new deaths. This evidence is observed to be stronger among advanced economies and over the second pandemic wave. Take together, our research findings advocate early and decisive implementation of NPIs, but gradual and staggered relaxation of NPIs when the pandemic appears to recede.

Keywords

COVID-19
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Government
Reproduction rate
New deaths

JEL classification

H31
I12
I18

Cited by (0)

We thank the Journal Editor, an anonymous referee, Cristina Orso and Marcus Jüppner for their comments and suggestions.