Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea: Accounting for interactions among climate and anthropogenic pressures
Graphical abstract
Introduction
Efforts to achieve the good environmental and ecological status of the marine and coastal environment, in line with the relevant EU acquis (EC, 2008; European Parliament, 2001) require appropriate policies that cannot be designed without a comprehensive knowledge of the impacts induced by different natural and anthropogenic drivers. In fact, the growth of maritime activities is taking place without the full understanding of the complex interactions between natural and human-induced changes, leading to a progressive decline of biodiversity, and consequently, the degradation of marine ecosystems. Moreover, if pressures are considered individually, they may appear to be at sustainable levels, while their overall impact may be considerable if they take place in the same area, acting on the same vulnerable habitats (HELCOM, 2017).
Improving our capacity to model and evaluate the combined effects of multiple stressors, in decisional contexts characterized by high uncertainty linked to natural dynamics difficult to predict, is therefore essential to address the future planning and management of our seas.
In the latest years several European and International projects were funded for developing methodological approaches aimed at evaluating cumulative impacts and risks produced by both natural and anthropogenic pressures on marine areas (e.g. HELCOM TAPAS1 and SPICE2, Adriplan3, COCONET4, PERSEUS5, HARMONY6, PEGASO7, Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan8). However, despite the awareness of the interactive and complex nature of pressures in dynamic ecosystems, such as marine areas, documented by numerous empirical and correlational studies (Crain et al., 2008; Sundbäck et al., 2007; Torquemada et al., 2005; Nordemar et al., 2003), most of the developed methodologies, basically inspired by the approach proposed by Halpern et al. (2008), have assumed an additive accumulation of impacts associated to single stressors (Halpern et al., 2008; Ban et al., 2010; Kappel et al., 2012; Korpinen et al., 2012; Andersen et al., 2013; Breton et al., 2014; Depellegrin et al., 2017; Gissi et al., 2017; HELCOM, 2017; Bevilacqua et al., 2018; Menegon et al., 2018a, Menegon et al., 2018b). Among these, only few studies have tried to include in the assessment more complex pathways of interactions between local and global stressors (i.e. synergic and antagonistic) through the application of specific aggregation functions and modelling tools (Ban et al., 2014; Brown et al., 2014; Foden et al., 2011; Canu et al., 2011; Stelzenmüller et al., 2009). Moreover, cumulative impacts induced by alternative scenarios of interactions, based on envisioned management measures and climate projections, have been rarely explored (Berry et al., 2015; Brown et al., 2014; Stelzenmüller et al., 2010; Canu et al., 2010), thus limiting the assessment to a snapshot in time based recent/current conditions. These limitations are reflected in the mainstream traditional (and current) marine management and planning approach, applying sectorial perspectives according to individual economic sectors' objectives (‘sectoral zoning’; Douvere, 2008), already proved to be unsuccessful in advancing the sustainable use of the marine environment. Being focused on managing individual activities separately from each other, they fail to account for their interactions and conflicts, as well as to analyze the resulting cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems (Kelly et al., 2018).
Moving beyond the traditional cumulative impact assessment methodologies and the recently developed multi-hazard approach described in Furlan et al. (2018), this paper aims at presenting a Cumulative Impact Index (hereafter CI-Index) integrating different metrics and scenarios of climate, ocean, biogeochemical and anthropogenic pressures (e.g. temperature variation, shipping traffic, aquaculture, ports activities, nutrients input) to evaluate cumulative impacts produced by interactive pressures in the Adriatic Sea case study area. Compared to the approach presented in Furlan et al. (2018), the key novelty of the CI-Index lies on the identification and evaluation of interactions and possible cumulative impacts induced by climate-related drivers (e.g. sea surface temperature variation) in combination with local to regional anthropogenic pressures (i.e. shipping traffic, aquaculture activities, chemical pollution by oil-spill). Its implementation, in fact, requires the application of the Choquet integral (Choquet, 1954; Murofushi and Sugeno, 1989; Grabisch, 1996; Zabeo et al., 2010; Giupponi et al., 2013) to model complex environmental phenomena induced by interactive pressures (e.g. biological disturbance through the introduction of non-indigenous species) and to, finally, develop a set of spatial maps and indicators identifying vulnerable hot-spots (e.g. seagrasses meadows, coral and maërl beds) requiring appropriate management actions and adaptation strategies for ecosystems' restoration and protection. Another element of novelty respect to Furlan et al. (2018) is the integration of a climate change scenarios in the CI-Index for a subset of pressures (i.e. sea surface temperature and nutrient input). This allowed calculating the CI-Index both for a reference (i.e. 2000–2015) and for a future timeframe (2035–2050) in order to support mid-term adaptive management of the Adriatic Sea.
After a brief introduction to the case study area and the input dataset used in the assessment (Section 2), the paper illustrates the key operational steps of the development of the CI-Index (Section 3) and, finally, presents the main results, including GIS-based maps and statistics useful to drive marine resources management and maritime spatial planning.
Section snippets
The Adriatic Sea case study
The CI-Index was applied in the marine sub-region of the Adriatic Sea, a semi-enclosed basin of the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the Ionian Sea through the Strait of Otranto (Fig. 1). Located among the Italian and the Balkan peninsulas, it is surrounded by six coastal States: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Italy, Slovenia and Serbia-Montenegro. It is featured by a stretched shape extending in north-west south-east direction, with a major axis with a length of 800 km and a minor
The CI-Index: conceptual framework and methodological steps
The main objective of the CI-Index is to assess cumulative impacts posed by interactive natural and anthropogenic pressures affecting marine areas. More specifically, the index aims at identifying, ranking and mapping multiple sources of hazard, habitats and targets at risk and, finally, to evaluate areas more prone to cumulative environmental impacts in the marine region of concern (Hayes and Landis, 2004).
The following sections describe the CI-Index conceptual framework (Section 3.1) and its
Application of the CI-Index in the Adriatic Sea
The following paragraphs describe, for each operative step of the proposed CI-Index, the output obtained at the case study level (4.1 Multi-hazard interactions maps, 4.2 Exposure and vulnerability maps, 4.3 Risk maps, 4.4 Cumulative impacts maps and indicators), including GIS-based multi-hazard interactions, exposure, vulnerability, risk and cumulative impacts maps and statistics for both reference 2000–2015, and future scenario 2035–2050 under the effect of changing climate conditions.
Conclusions
This study proposed an integrated index for the evaluation of cumulative impacts produced by interactive endogenic and exogenic pressures on marine areas and vulnerable targets.
A wide array of multi-hazard, vulnerability, exposure, risk and cumulative impacts maps and metrics were developed for the Adriatic Sea case study, against a reference and future climate scenario (i.e. 2000–2015 and 2035–2050 timeframe). These outputs provide a comprehensive evaluation (and relative ranking) of marine
Acknowledgment
The research leading to these results has been partly funded by the PERSEUS project (Policy-oriented marine Environmental Research for the Southern European Seas, http://www.perseus-net.eu) within the European Union 7th Framework Programme - theme “Oceans of Tomorrow” (Grant Agreement No. 287600). Additional fundings were provided in the frame of the Strategic Projects of the Foundation Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici. The authors gratefully acknowledge their colleagues Dr.
References (119)
- et al.
Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 3: spatial decision support system
Environ. Int.
(2012) - et al.
A qualitative risk-based assessment of impacts on marine habitats and harvested species for a data deficient wild capture fishery
Biol. Conserv.
(2009) - et al.
Cumulative impact mapping: advances, relevance and limitations to marine management and conservation, using Canada's Pacific waters as a case study
Mar. Policy
(2010) - et al.
Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: a Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs
Glob. Environ. Chang.
(2014) - et al.
150 years of eutrophication in the northern Adriatic Sea: evidence from a benthic foraminiferal record
Mar. Geol.
(1995) - et al.
Large marine protected areas (LMPAs) in the Mediterranean Sea: the opportunity of the Adriatic Sea
Mar. Policy
(2016) - et al.
Marine invasive alien species: a threat to global biodiversity
Mar. Policy
(2003) Increased eutrophication of the northern Adriatic Sea: second act
Mar. Pollut. Bull.
(1989)- et al.
Choquet integral-based hesitant fuzzy decision-making to prevent soil erosion
Geoderma
(2018) - et al.
Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea
Sci. Total Environ.
(2017)
The importance of marine spatial planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use management
Mar. Policy
Force majeure: will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?
Mar. Pollut. Bull.
Towards an operational use of space imagery for oil pollution monitoring in the Mediterranean basin: a demonstration in the Adriatic Sea
Mar. Pollut. Bull.
Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning
Mar. Policy
Spatially explicit risk approach for multi-hazard assessment and management in marine environment: the case study of the Adriatic Sea
Sci. Total Environ.
A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin: an integrated approach
Ecol. Indic.
A dynamic assessment tool for exploring and communicating vulnerability to floods and climate change
Environ. Model Softw.
The application of fuzzy integrals in multicriteria decision making
Eur. J. Oper. Res.
Conceptualising change in marine governance: learning from transition management
Mar. Policy
Long-term environmental impact of oil spills
Spill Science & Technology Bulletin
Accidental spills at sea–risk, impact, mitigation and the need for co-ordinated post-incident monitoring
Mar. Pollut. Bull.
Genome size of Adriatic seagrasses
Aquat. Bot.
Human pressures and their potential impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystem
Ecol. Indic.
The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: scenario analyses
J. Mar. Syst.
Spatial variability of phosphate and nitrate in the Mediterranean Sea: a modeling approach
Deep-Sea Res. I Oceanogr. Res. Pap.
A modelling framework for MSP-oriented cumulative effects assessment
Ecol. Indic.
Addressing cumulative effects, maritime conflicts and ecosystem services threats through MSP-oriented geospatial webtools
Ocean Coast. Manag.
Marine litter on Mediterranean shores: analysis of composition, spatial distribution and sources in north-western Adriatic beaches
Waste Manag.
An interpretation of fuzzy measures and the Choquet integral as an integral with respect to a fuzzy measure
Fuzzy Sets Syst.
Mapping ecological vulnerability to recent climate change in Canada's Pacific marine ecosystems
Ocean & Coastal Management
The role of seagrasses in coastal protection in a changing climate
Coast. Eng.
Spatial data fusion for qualitative estimation of fuzzy request zones: application on precision viticulture
Fuzzy Sets Syst.
Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites
Environ. Int.
Reconstructing 150 years of eutrophication in the north-western Adriatic Sea (Italy) using dinoflagellate cysts, pollen and spores
Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci.
A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy)
Sci. Total Environ.
Human Uses, Pressures and Impacts in the Eastern North Sea
Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures
Clim. Chang.
A regional assessment of cumulative impact mapping on Mediterranean coralligenous outcrops
Scientific Reports
Overview of integrative assessment of marine systems: the ecosystem approach in practice
Front. Mar. Sci.
Aliens on the shores: biodiversity and national economies are being threatened by the invasion of non-native species
EMBO Rep.
Interactions between global and local stressors of ecosystems determine management effectiveness in cumulative impact mapping
Divers. Distrib.
Hydrographic Properties of the Adriatic Sea in the Period From 1965 Through 1970
Effect of global change on bivalve rearing activity and the need for adaptive management
Clim. Res.
Addressing sustainability of clam farming in the Venice Lagoon
Ecol. Soc.
Estimating the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services in the Mediterranean Sea: an ecological economics approach
Glob. Environ. Chang.
Response of a benthic food web to hydrocarbon contamination
Limnol. Oceanogr.
Coralligenous habitat in the northern Adriatic Sea: an overview
Mar. Ecol.
Cited by (27)
Growing coastal tourism: Can biomonitoring provide insights into the health of coastal ecosystems?
2024, Marine Pollution BulletinEffects of climate change on marine coastal ecosystems – A review to guide research and management
2024, Biological ConservationFirst data on the effect of Aluminium intake in Chamelea gallina of exploited stocks in the Southern Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean Sea)
2023, Regional Studies in Marine ScienceEvaluating the combined effect of climate and anthropogenic stressors on marine coastal ecosystems: Insights from a systematic review of cumulative impact assessment approaches
2023, Science of the Total EnvironmentCitation Excerpt :The wide application of both mapping and indicator/index-based methodologies is also due to the requirements posed by both the EU and international regulatory frameworks (e.g., MSFD and MSP directives, UNCLOS), which require analysing and locating human activities and their drivers to reduce spatial conflicts and trade-off among multiple uses, while supporting the sustainable use and conservation of marine coastal resources. Expert-based ranking (28 publications out of the selected 101 relevant papers – as reported in Supplementary material SM4) is also frequently applied for several purposes, including i) to consider experts' perception in the evaluation of the risk linked to human and climate-induced impacts (Armstrong et al., 2019; Brodersen et al., 2018)); ii) to estimate ecological vulnerabilities to pressures (Clark et al., 2016; Jones et al., 2018; Mach et al., 2017; Singh et al., 2017; Uusitalo et al., 2016); and iii) to analyse interactions among multiple pressures (Cook et al., 2014; Furlan et al., 2019). On the other hand, differently from these studies mainly based on expert judgments, a step-wise risk-based approach is proposed by Piet et al. (2021) for a fully quantitative CIA integrating information for different sectoral human activities, pressures and ecosystem components.