From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

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Highlights

  • We develop low-carbon narrative-based scenarios from the global to national scale.

  • The scenarios are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis.

  • We show the flexibility in transition pathways which can be explored by politicians.

  • The transition strategy for power production strongly depends on the narrative.

  • There are large differences in transitions between global, European and country level.

Abstract

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.

Introduction

Many national (Danish Energy Agency, 2014; Grandjean et al., 2014; McGlade et al., 2016; Öko-Institut and ISI, 2016), regional (European Commission, 2011), and global (Clarke et al., 2014; Kriegler et al., 2014; van Vuuren et al., 2011; Weyant et al., 2013) scenarios to low-carbon economies have been developed to explore mitigation strategies that would achieve the long-term climate targets as agreed in the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015). These scenarios have been developed using computational modelling, adopting, amongst others, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and dedicated energy models. IAMs use high levels of aggregation (such as large world regions) and provide a global analytical understanding of transitions, climate change, and the various complex interlinkages between the Earth and human system. In their conceptualisation of global systems change, IAMs necessarily focus on aggregated universal processes. The dedicated models are used for more detailed analyses on sector-level or for lower geographical scales, such as on country-level (Deane et al., 2012). While these models have a higher temporal and spatial resolution compared to IAMs, they mostly lack information on developments in the rest of the world or in other sectors that may influence the sector under investigation. As such, global models depict a coherent and consistent picture of system change on a wider spatial scale which leads to more abstraction, whereas dedicated energy models contain a specific focus area. This implies that for the second type of models, assumptions have to be made regarding variables such as fuel prices, biomass availability, and electricity demand, which depend on developments in other sectors or regions that are beyond the scope of the model itself and scenario-dependant. As global IAMs can provide information on such variables, it creates an opportunity to combine these two types of models in a harmonised framework.

There are numerous examples of such linkages between global and regional or sectoral models. For instance, Deane et al. (2012) link an energy system model to a power system model to improve the understanding of the energy systems model results regarding the Republic of Ireland's electricity sector. Collins et al. (2017) carry out a similar, but methodologically wider investigation focused on the modelling of the system integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the EU power system. Drouet et al. (2005) developed a scenario for the residential sector in Switzerland using a combined model, where the residential sector is described by a bottom-up sector-specific model and the rest of the economy by a computable general equilibrium model. Deetman et al. (2015) have linked a global IAM with a European power system model, analysing a predefined selection of mitigation measures. Similarly, the global energy model POLES (Després et al., 2017) has been used in conjunction with the more detailed European energy model PRIMES (E3MLab, 2016) since the mid-1990s (Capros et al., 1998). In the European FP6 project ADAM, several bottom-up and top-down models were linked to develop 2°C scenarios for Europe (Jochem and Schade, 2009).

However, all the above studies, with the exception of Deetman et al. (2015), focus on cost-optimal scenarios only. This restriction ignores real-world imperfections (Staub-Kaminski et al., 2014) and has been shown to not approximate real-world transitions (Trutnevyte, 2016). Moreover, it ignores the possible diversity in low-carbon strategies. One method to gain insight into such flexibility is by way of uncertainty analysis, such as done by Li and Trutnevyte (2017). However, for complex global IAMs and detailed dedicated models used in our analysis, common uncertainty analysis approaches such as Monte Carlo are not viable due to their computational requirements.1 Therefore, in this paper we apply an alternative method to test the diversity in transition dynamics by developing scenarios based on narratives or storylines. As shown by Trutnevyte et al. (2014), combining qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling has several advantages: it may lead to novel and creative ways of thinking about the future, it may help communicating the results of scenario analyses, and it allows a much broader picture by including governance aspects. Earlier work (e.g., Deetman et al., 2015) has adopted a similar approach but with more ad-hoc assumptions.

In the current study, we develop two contrasting scenarios empirically underpinned by sociotechnical transition case studies. The quantitative scenarios mainly focus on technology developments, whereas socio-technical transitions also focus on changes in consumer practices, policies, cultural meanings, infrastructures, and business models (Geels, 2019). The framework used to analyse socio-technical transitions is the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP; Geels, 2002). The MLP is a widely used social science approach for analysing socio-technical transitions on three levels: niche-innovations, socio-technical regimes, and macro landscape pressures (Geels, 2002; Geels et al., this issue, Geels and Schot, 2007). We applied the method by van Sluisveld et al. (this issue) to align the MLP with the quantitative scenarios.

To our knowledge, there are no studies available that analyse narrative-based quantitative decarbonisation scenarios limiting global CO2 emissions to a certain budget or level using a combined set of models from the global to national scale. We focus on changes in the electricity sector as this sector is currently responsible for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions, which is more than any other sector, and literature shows that the largest reduction potential is projected in electricity supply (IPCC, 2014).

The modelling set included in our analysis consists of two global IAMs as well as one European country-level electricity model. The two IAMs include IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, Stehfest et al., 2014) and WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid, Emmerling et al., 2016). We contrast the global results with results from the Enertile model (formerly known as PowerACE; Pfluger, 2014) ,2 offering consistent national perspectives in a European context.

The main aim of this exercise is to gain insight in the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, by defining storylines that take into account social preferences as deducted from MLP case studies on niche-innovations. Furthermore, our modelling exercise is an important step in the eight-step methodological procedure to develop socio-technical scenarios as set out by Geels et al. (this issue). As such, the quantitative scenarios form the basis to identify transition bottlenecks and to formulate policy recommendations.

The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides the theoretical basis on which the MLP case studies were used to create alternative scenarios and an overview of the models and how they were linked. Section 3 discusses the results of the scenarios from a global to European and national level. Section 4 discusses how our exercise compares to previous exercises in which MLP was used to develop scenarios and summarizes the main conclusions.

Section snippets

Method

This section provides a short methodological overview of how the MLP was aligned with scenario development (Section 2.1), a description of the models used and how they were linked (Section 2.2), the overall scenario storylines (Section 2.3), an explanation of how the qualitative storylines were implemented in the quantitative scenarios (Section 2.4).

Results

The results of our intermodel comparison scenario study are presented below, starting with the global scale, moving down to Europe as a whole and finally to national level. The degree of similarity between the model results provide an indication of the degree of flexibility in the mitigation pathway: if different models lead to very differing outcomes, there could be relatively much flexibility in how the mitigation targets can be achieved and vice versa.

Discussion and conclusions

In this paper, we have developed internally consistent scenarios from the global to national scale, systematically building on two contrasting mitigation storylines, focusing on the electricity sector. We have used MLP case studies on niche-innovations to characterise alternative transition pathways that go beyond cost considerations and account for broader changes in socio-technical components.

Combining quantitative modelling with qualitative storylines is not new. As discussed by

Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007–2013 under grant agreement n° 603942 (PATHWAYS). SC acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement n°706330 (MERCURY).

Andries Hof is senior researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and guest researcher at the Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University. He holds a university degree in economics (1999), after which he conducted research at several institutes in the Netherlands, Germany, and the US. In 2007, he started working on a EU research project about mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change policy at PBL and received his PhD with this topic in 2010. Andries has authored

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    Andries Hof is senior researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and guest researcher at the Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University. He holds a university degree in economics (1999), after which he conducted research at several institutes in the Netherlands, Germany, and the US. In 2007, he started working on a EU research project about mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change policy at PBL and received his PhD with this topic in 2010. Andries has authored more than 50 publications in peer-reviewed journals.

    Samuel Carrara is researcher at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy. His-main research interests include renewable energies, sustainable development, energy policies, climate and energy economics, advanced energy systems and transportation. In early 2016 he was granted a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Global Fellowship by the European Commission, which is characterised by an outgoing phase as a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley in 2017 and a return phase at FEEM in 2018.

    Enrica De Cian is a senior researcher at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM). She obtained the PhD in Economics and Organization from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice in 2008. In 2012 she obtained a Marie Curie Research Fellowship and in 2012–2013 she was research scholar at the Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, USA. Her research interests include integrated assessment modelling, economics of adaptation, climate change impacts, climate change policies, technological change.

    Benjamin Pfluger joined the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in 2008, first in the Competence centre Energy Policy and Energy Systems and since 2012 in the Competence centre Energy Policy and Energy Markets. He obtained his PhD in 2014 on the assessment of least-cost pathways for decarbonising Europe‘s power supply, for which he developed the Enertile model which optimises capacity expansion and hourly despatch of both conventional and renewable power generation, transmission grids and storage facilities on hourly basis. His-work focuses on renewable energies and their promotion and the modelling of energy systems and markets.

    Mariësse van Sluisveld is a researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Her expertise is in integrated assessment modelling and scenario development. Her current work focuses on alternative transition pathways that meet long-term climate policy targets, on which she obtained her PhD in 2017. Her main interests are in the fields of climate policy, lifestyle change and material efficiency. She holds a PhD degree in Sustainable Development with a major in Energy and Resources from Utrecht University.

    Harmen Sytze de Boer is a researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Harmen Sytze holds a master degree in Energy and Environmental Sciences obtained at the University of Groningen (2012) and a bachelor degree in Mechanical Engineering obtained at the Hanzehogeschool Groningen (2010). His-master thesis research focused on the effects of applying different large scale energy storage systems in the Dutch electricity system. His-current work focuses on system integration, path dependencies, and resource constraints in the energy system.

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