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Local Learning of Tide Level Time Series using a Fuzzy Approach | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Local Learning of Tide Level Time Series using a Fuzzy Approach


Abstract:

Forecasting the tide level in the Venezia lagoon is a very compelling task. In this work we propose a new approach to the learning of tide level time series based on the ...Show More

Abstract:

Forecasting the tide level in the Venezia lagoon is a very compelling task. In this work we propose a new approach to the learning of tide level time series based on the local learning procedure of Bottou and Vapnik, by considering the use of a fuzzy method for the selection of the closest patterns to the one to forecast. We made use also as learners of Support Vector Machines and of their ensembles based on Bagging and AdaBoost. The obtained forecasts of 500 randomly selected tide levels seem to be quite promising. Good performances are also noticed for forecasts of a set of 80 tide levels corresponding to exceptional periods with high tide and sea variabilities. The obtained forecasts of 80 selected tide levels compare very favorably with those of the baseline linear regressor model.
Date of Conference: 12-17 August 2007
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 29 October 2007
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ISSN Information:

Conference Location: Orlando, FL, USA

I. Introduction

After the disastrous flood of November 1966 in Venezia (194 cm over the average sea level) the Municipality of Venezia set up the first observation service of the high tides. In December 1979 another severe flood occurred (166 cm over the average sea level). In consequence of these events, the municipal government decided to found the CPSM - Centro Previsioni SegnalazioniMaree(Tide Forecasting and Signalling Center) - which mainly has to supply an effective alarm service regarding the occurrence of important or extraordinary high (and ebb) tides [5].

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