September 2023 Doubly-online changepoint detection for monitoring health status during sports activities
Mattia Stival, Mauro Bernardi, Petros Dellaportas
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Ann. Appl. Stat. 17(3): 2387-2409 (September 2023). DOI: 10.1214/22-AOAS1724

Abstract

We provide an online framework for analyzing data recorded by smart watches during running activities. In particular, we focus on identifying variations in the behavior of one or more measurements caused by changes in physical condition, such as physical discomfort, periods of prolonged de-training, or even the malfunction of measuring devices. Our framework considers data as a sequence of running activities represented by multivariate time series of physical and biometric data. We combine classical changepoint detection models with an unknown number of components with Gaussian state space models to detect distributional changes between a sequence of activities. The model considers multiple sources of dependence due to the sequential nature of subsequent activities, the autocorrelation structure within each activity, and the contemporaneous dependence between different variables. We provide an online expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm involving a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of changepoint predicted probabilities. As a byproduct of our model assumptions, our proposed approach processes sequences of multivariate time series in a doubly-online framework. While classical changepoint models detect changes between subsequent activities, the state space framework, coupled with the online EM algorithm, provides the additional benefit of estimating the real-time probability that a current activity is a changepoint.

Funding Statement

This research was supported by funding from the University of Padova Research Grant BIRD203991.

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the cardiologist Dr. Costas Thomopoulos for valuable discussions.

Citation

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Mattia Stival. Mauro Bernardi. Petros Dellaportas. "Doubly-online changepoint detection for monitoring health status during sports activities." Ann. Appl. Stat. 17 (3) 2387 - 2409, September 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AOAS1724

Information

Received: 1 February 2022; Revised: 1 August 2022; Published: September 2023
First available in Project Euclid: 7 September 2023

MathSciNet: MR4637672
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/22-AOAS1724

Keywords: online expectation maximization , Real-time health monitoring , sequential Monte Carlo , smart watches

Rights: Copyright © 2023 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.17 • No. 3 • September 2023
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